Statistical Probabilities
Stardate: Unknown
Original Airdate: 24 Nov, 1997

[Cargo bay]

(The bay has been turned into quarters, with private areas and a communal living space.)
JACK: (fast talking man) No. No. It's not fair. Am I alone here? Is that it? Am I the only one who sees. And what is that incessant noise?
LOEWS: Calm down.
JACK: Why? Am I talking too fast, Doctor? Having trouble keeping up?
LOEWS: I just don't want you to get upset.
PATRICK: (round middle-aged man) Please don't leave us here, Karen. Please.
LOEWS: It's only for a few weeks, Patrick.
JACK: You know why they brought us here, don't you? Why they carted us halfway across the quadrant? They're going to experiment on us.
LOEWS: Stop it, Jack.
JACK: They want to find out what makes our genetically engineered brains tick. They're going to cut our heads open and see what comes out!
(Patrick cries.)
LOEWS: He's just trying to scare you. Don't listen to him. I told you why I brought you here, remember? To meet that doctor, Doctor Bashir?
LAUREN: (sultry siren lounging on a couch) You know, the handsome one.
LOEWS: He was genetically enhanced when he was a boy, just like all of you.
JACK: No, no. He's not like us. I never saw him at the Institute. He wasn't locked away for being too smart. He's passed himself off as normal. He's Mister Normal Starfleet man. Mister Productive Member of Society. Well, maybe we can learn to be just like him. Wear little uniforms. Yes, sir. No, sir. Thank you, sir.
PATRICK: I don't like it here.
LOEWS: It's going to be all right. Doctor Bashir is going to work with you for a while, that's all. Just think of it as a little vacation from the Institute.
JACK: No. No. This isn't happening.
LOEWS: It is happening, Jack, and you're going to have to try to make the best of it.
LAUREN: I'm going to make the best of it. See the way he's looking at me? (Bashir's bio on a PADD) He's in love with me already.
JACK: Give me that!
PATRICK: I want to go home.
(Doorbell)
LAUREN: It's him.
(Jack grabs the PADD and jumps on it.)
JACK: See that? That's what I'm going to do to your boyfriend.
LOEWS: Give me the PADD.
(He drags the broken plastic across her hand, cutting it.)
JACK: Sorry.
LOEWS: You're not sorry, we both know that. You did it on purpose because you're upset. But there are better ways of dealing with being upset.
JACK: I'll work on it.
LOEWS: All right. Well, I'll see you all in a few weeks.
(Patrick comes in for a hug.)
LOEWS: Patrick, it's fine, it's fine. Go on.
(She goes over to a silent, ghost-like girl standing by the door.)
LOEWS: Bye, Sarina.
(Sarina turns and examines the bulkhead.)

[Corridor]

BASHIR: You all right?
LOEWS: It's nothing. Just another run in with Jack. Like I said in my report, don't turn your back on him.
BASHIR: Well, we'd better get you down to the Infirmary.
LOWES: I'm fine. Go on in. They're about as ready to meet you as they'll ever be. I just hope you have better luck getting through to them than I've had.

[Cargo bay]

(Someone's turned the lights out, but there is still just enough light to see.)
BASHIR: Hello?
(A giggle in the darkness.)
JACK: Funny. He doesn't look like a mutant.
BASHIR: Is that you, Jack?
JACK: He knows me. He knows my name. I didn't tell him my name.
BASHIR: It's all right. I just read Doctor Loews's report, that's all.
JACK: I knew that.
BASHIR: Hello, Sarina.
JACK: What is he talking to her for? He read the reports. She won't answer. Didn't you read the reports?
BASHIR: Would anyone mind if I turned on the lights?
JACK: Would anyone mind if he turned on some lights? Go ahead. We're not mole people, you know.
BASHIR: Computer, lights.
LAUREN: Hello.
BASHIR: Lauren.
LAUREN: I know what you're thinking, Julian, but I'm not that kind of girl.
JACK: Bashir, was it? Rings a bell. Bashir, Bashir, Bashir, Bashir. Ah ha, got it! Fifteenth century poet Singh el Bashir. Any relation?
BASHIR: Yes, actually.
JACK: His work was totally derivative. He was a plagiarist. You knew that. You had to know. Yet you came in here bragging about it anyway. Why?
BASHIR: You're the one who brought it up.
(Giggling off screen.)
JACK: What was I supposed to do, just let you get away with it? That noise!
LAUREN: Tell me, Doctor, what kind of enhancements did your parents have done to you?
BASHIR: Mental abilities, mostly. But they had my hand eye coordination, reflexes and vision improved as well.
(Jack does a back flip)
JACK: Can you do that?
BASHIR: I doubt it.
JACK: What happened? Your parents couldn't afford the full overhaul?
LAUREN: He turned out all right.
JACK: You're not exactly known for being very discriminating.
LAUREN: I turned you down, didn't I?
JACK: And you're still regretting it. The cube root of three hundred twenty nine. What is it?
BASHIR: Six point nine zero three.
LAUREN: Very good. And you didn't even use your fingers. He's a mutant, just like the rest of us.
JACK: No, no, no. He is not like us. No. He passed as normal.
PATRICK: Is that true? Did you passed as normal? Is that true?
BASHIR: My genetic status was discovered a year ago.
LAUREN: How'd you manage to hide it for so long?
BASHIR: I did my best not to exploit my abilities.
JACK: So no one would suspect. Very clever. I'm impressed. That's not right. There are reasons why DNA resequencing is illegal. There are reasons why people like us are barred from serving in Starfleet. We have an advantage. Normal people can't compete. It's not fair.
BASHIR: Maybe you're right. Maybe I should have said something sooner.
JACK: There are rules. Don't talk with your mouth full. Don't open an airlock when somebody's inside it. And don't lie about your genetic status. No, no, no. You did, you lied. And then, when you got caught, you cut a deal with Starfleet. You got yourself off the hook.
PATRICK: If you'd told the truth, you could have lived with us at the Institute.
JACK: He's right, you know. Then they would have put you away.
BASHIR: They don't put people away for being genetically engineered.
JACK: No, no, no, no they just won't let us do anything that's worth doing. No, no. They are afraid that people like us are going to take over.
BASHIR: It happened before. People like us did try and take over.
JACK: Oh, no, no. I knew you were going to do that. I knew you were going to trot out the Eugenics Wars.
BASHIR: I'm not trotting anything out. All I'm saying is there's a reason we've been barred from certain professions. But that doesn't mean we can't be productive members of society.
JACK: Here it comes. The we can still contribute speech. No. No, no, no, no. I will not forget what was done to me. I will not be part of a society that put me away for being too smart. No, no.
BASHIR: All right, then. Since then you have all the answers already, I'll spare you the speech. I'm having dinner with some friends.
JACK: What, you think we don't eat? We eat. We're going to eat right now. Yum yum.
PATRICK: I'll go set the table.
(Bashir leaves.)
JACK: Don't worry about us, we'll be fine.
LAUREN: Thanks for scaring him off.

[Sisko's quarters]

(After dinner)
BASHIR: All I kept thinking was, there but for the grace of God go I.
DAX: How do you mean?
BASHIR: My parents managed to find a decent doctor to perform the DNA resequencing on me. These four weren't so lucky. They all suffered unintended side effects. By the time they were five or six, their parents were forced to come forward and admit that they'd broken the law so that their children could get treatment.
SISKO: Perhaps they waited too long.
BASHIR: There was nothing the doctors at the Institute could do for them. These cases are so rare there's no standard treatment.
KIRA: I can't imagine it was a very stimulating environment for them.
BASHIR: That's what Doctor Loews thought when she first came to the Institute. She got permission to separate them from the other residents so that she could work with them.
ODO: Why did she bring them here?
BASHIR: She thought they might respond to meeting someone like them, who was living a normal life. She was also hoping that one day they might be able to live on their own and be productive.
O'BRIEN: Well, let's hope they don't become too productive. Might make the rest of us look bad.
WORF: It is not a laughing matter. If people like them are allowed to compete freely, then parents would feel pressured to have their children enhanced so that they could keep up.
ODO: That's precisely what prompted the ban on DNA resequencing in the first place.
BASHIR: Giving them a chance to contribute doesn't necessarily mean sanctioning what was done to them. They didn't ask to have their DNA tampered with. They were only children. And why should they be excluded just because their parents broke the law?
SISKO: You're right. It's not quite fair. But even so, it seemed like a good way to discourage genetic tampering.
O'BRIEN: Besides, it's not as if we're trying to exclude them from anything. We're just talking about limiting what they're allowed to do.
BASHIR: Like joining Starfleet.
WORF: Exactly.
BASHIR: Are you saying that I shouldn't be allowed to wear this uniform?
WORF: Well, you are an exception.
BASHIR: An exception. I should be used to that, I've been one all my life. First because of the DNA resequencing, and now because I've been allowed to join Starfleet.
WORF: Perhaps I should not have said anything.
BASHIR: No, it's all right.
SISKO: Well, does anyone care to speculate about what Gul Damar is going to say in his speech?
O'BRIEN: Nothing we're going to like, I'll bet.
KIRA: It should be starting any minute.
DAX: If he's going to announce another new battle offensive, it's going to spoil dessert.
JACK [OC]: Can you hear me? Hello? Calling Doctor Bashir.
BASHIR: Jack.
JACK [OC]: Hello? Anybody there?
KIRA: Did you give them access to the comm. system?
JACK [OC]: Hello? Hello? Doctor Bashir?
BASHIR: No, they must've broken in somehow. I'd love to stay and chat about our impending doom, but

[Cargo bay]

JACK: I can't take it! Would you do something about that noise!
(They're all behaving as if they're in pain. Even Sarina is covering her ears.)
BASHIR: What noise?
JACK: What kind of sick game are you people playing?
BASHIR: What are you talking about?
JACK: Can't you hear it?
LAUREN: We complained and two very cute Engineers came by and said there was nothing wrong.
BASHIR: Wait. Is it a kind of a high pitched whine?
JACK: Yes. Thank god! See, I told you we weren't crazy. (hugs Bashir) You are a mutant. You are. (grabs Sarina) Now, do something about that noise or I will snap her neck.
(After the break.)
BASHIR: I called Chief O'Brien. Now let her go.
JACK: Maybe I'll wait till he gets here.
BASHIR: If you don't let her go, I'll tell the Chief the noise went away by itself.
JACK: You think I want to be doing this? I'm just making sure things get done.
(Jack releases Sarina.)
JACK: Unbelievable. This is the thanks I get.
BASHIR: Are you all right?
(Doorbell)
BASHIR: Come in. Miles, I wonder if you could find out what's making that noise? I know you can't hear it, but it's there. Probably a sympathetic vibration in a power coupling or something.
(O'Brien gets out a tricorder.)
O'BRIEN: What do you know? You're right.
JACK: Well, why don't you fix it, dear fellow, dear fellow, well why don't you fix it before I go mad.
BASHIR: He's married.
LAUREN: Too bad.
PATRICK: Sounds like the plasma flow's out of sync.
O'BRIEN: You're right.
PATRICK: Better realign it.
O'BRIEN: I was thinking that.
BASHIR: It's about to start.
O'BRIEN: Almost finished. There.
JACK: Finally.
BASHIR: Much better. Thank you, Chief.
DAMAR [on viewscreen]: Fellow citizens, these are great days for Cardassia. Together with our Dominion allies, we have given our enemies cause to fear us once more.
(His speech continues under the dialogue.)
O'BRIEN: Can't argue with that.
LAUREN: Who's he?
BASHIR: It's Damar, the new head of the Cardassian government.
DAMAR [on viewscreen]: The war with the Federation accomplished of our goals. Cardassia is strong again, an empire to be feared. We are safe behind secure borders, and no one will ever dare attack us again.
JACK: Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.
PATRICK: He's sad.
LAUREN: Ashamed is more like it.
BASHIR: Why do you say that?
O'BRIEN: Shh.
DAMAR [on viewscreen]: From this position of strength, we are poised to take another bold step to insure our future. Peace.
LAUREN: Looks like a man who doesn't sleep.
DAMAR: It is time to bring an end to this war with the Federation. It is time for us to rebuild on the foundation of strength we have laid. The sons of Cardassia shed
JACK: Methought I heard a voice cry, Sleep no more! Damar does murder sleep!
PATRICK: He's killed someone.
LAUREN: Someone close to him.
O'BRIEN: How could they know that?
DAMAR [on viewscreen: Their blood to defend their home. Their sacrifice must not be in vain. The peace we seek will honour their memory, and preserve the gains for which they gave their lives. I challenge the Federation to answer my call for peace. I am ready at any time to meet with its representatives to discuss how we can bring an end to hostilities. As your leader, I pledge that I will do everything in my power
JACK: Pretender! You don't belong on that throne and you know it.
DAMAR [on viewscreen]: To protect Cardassia and allow us to
PATRICK: Someone's making him say all this. He doesn't want to.
DAMAR [on viewscreen]: Move forward into a new era. This I vow with my life's blood for my sons, for all our sons.
(Transmission ends.)
BASHIR: Did any of you know who Damar was before today?
JACK: No, no, no, but it's obvious who he is. The Pretender who killed the king and seized the throne.
LAUREN: Not the king. He's still alive.
PATRICK: The queen, maybe, or a princess.
BASHIR: Yes, Ziyal. That's Gul Dukat's daughter.
JACK: And now the Pretender finds himself in league with a, a Dark Knight that he can't control.
O'BRIEN: Weyoun?
JACK: It's not a bad story. Epic, really. What else can you tell us?

[Ops]

BASHIR: It was amazing. They pieced together the entire story of how Damar came to power. Weyoun is the Dark Prince, Gul Dukat is the deposed King, Damar is the Pretender to the throne, and Ziyal is the innocent Princess he murdered. And now the Pretender is wracked with guilt over what he's done.
KIRA: And they got all this just from watching Damar's speech?
BASHIR: Well, they were fascinated by the whole thing. They kept bombarding me with questions about Cardassia and the war. I've never seen them so engaged.
DAX: And you want to keep them engaged.
BASHIR: I'd like to try. I'm just running out of material.
KIRA: What do you mean?
BASHIR: They've already gone through everything the computer has on Cardassia and the Dominion.
(Sisko comes out of his office.)
SISKO: Roll out the red carpet.
DAX: Visitors?
SISKO: Starfleet has decided to listen to what Damar has to say. He and Weyoun will be arriving in the morning. I am the lucky one who gets the chance to sit across the table from them.
BASHIR: That's great.
KIRA: It's hard to believe that the Dominion really wants peace. I wouldn't be surprised if they were just stalling for time in order to regroup.
BASHIR: Sir, is there any chance I can get a transcript of the negotiations?
SISKO: You can do better than that. The Dominion has insisted on recording the proceedings so that everyone can see that their desire for peace is sincere.
BASHIR: Perfect.
DAX: You shouldn't have agreed to that, Benjamin. Now you'll have to be on your best behaviour.

[Cargo bay]

JACK: So the Pretender and his Dark Knight are coming to the station?
PATRICK: The story's not over.
LAUREN: Peace talks. Could be interesting.
BASHIR: I'd say so. And the best part is, we're going to have ringside seats.

[Airlock]

WEYOUN: Ah, Major.
KIRA: Welcome to Deep Space Nine.
WEYOUN: How nice to see you again.
KIRA: Can I give you a word of advice, Weyoun?
WEYOUN: By all means.
KIRA: You're welcome to play your little 'we're all friends here' act with me, but I wouldn't try it with Captain Sisko. He's not in the mood.
DAMAR: We're on a mission of peace, Major. Maybe he should get in the mood.

[Cargo bay]

(Damar is talking about a map on the wall screen, Weyoun is sitting at a table.)
DAMAR: This is the border as it existed before hostilities broke out. This is the border we are now proposing.
(Patrick takes a close look at Damar.)
WEYOUN: This arrangement would award disputed star systems to the side that already has effective control over them. On the balance, we're giving up more than you.
DAMAR: As you can see
JACK: Computer, freeze programme. Computer. (beep) Hi. Er, listen. Go to native language mode and replay time code seven six one through seven six nine.
WEYOUN: Eee ja maa'na hoo'va baa'li jen'ku'rada sen'to.
JACK: Got you. Did you hear that? He used the passive voice transitive.
BASHIR: Since when could you speak Dominionese?
JACK: Since this morning. That phrasing is only used to make a request, not a statement. They are up to something.
BASHIR: What is it, Patrick? Did you see something? You can tell us.
PATRICK: They want the Kabrel system.
BASHIR: How do you know?
PATRICK: They kept avoiding it with their eyes.
BASHIR: You're sure?
PATRICK: They kept avoiding it.
JACK: Told you they were up to something.
BASHIR: End programme.
(The meeting room disappears.)
BASHIR: All right, they want the Kabrel system. But why?
LAUREN: I don't know, but they're willing to give up a lot to get it. The mizinite deposits on Holna Four alone are enough to keep their shipyards running for years.
JACK: Yes, yes, yes. That's a typical Dominion strategy. They offer to give up something valuable in order to hide the fact that they want something even more valuable in the long term. See, that's how they think. Big picture. They don't worry about what's going to happen tomorrow, no, no, no, they're thinking long term. They're thinking what's going to happen a year from now, a decade, a century. Yes, yes.
BASHIR: There must be something special about the Kabrel system.
LAUREN: Nothing on the first planet but some simple protozoids and trinucleic fungi. The second planet has some cormaline deposits, but they're common enough.
JACK: Okay, okay, okay. Maybe there's another reason. Does it have any strategic value?
(Bashir notices Sarina writing on a PADD.)
LAUREN: Not that I can see. They wouldn't want to build a base there.
JACK: Why not? Why not? Seems perfectly suitable.
LAUREN: It's not an optimum situation. It's a binary system, there's a lot of ionic interference.
(Bashir reads Sarina's PADD)
JACK: All right, forget that.
BASHIR: Does this have anything to do with what we're talking about, Sarina? Can we take it?
JACK: Think, think. Any evidence that Kabrel used to support an advanced civilisation? Maybe they're looking to excavate something valuable like an ancient technology.
LAUREN: There's no evidence of anything like that.
BASHIR: Any idea what this might mean?

[Captain's office]

(The PADD, analysis mode 47, shows a chemical structure.)
SISKO: Chemistry was never my strong suit. What is it?
BASHIR: It shows how you can break down tri-nucleic fungus to make yridium bicantizine, one of the active ingredients in Ketracel White. That's why the Dominion wants the Kabrel system, so that they can manufacture the drug right here in the Alpha Quadrant. According to our calculations, they'll be able to make enough White to supply the Jem'Hadar indefinitely.
SISKO: I was going to recommend that the Federation accept the proposed border. It could have cost us the Alpha Quadrant.
BASHIR: Actually, sir, we should give them Kabrel.
SISKO: Why is that?
BASHIR: If we don't, the Dominion will be forced to attack before their stockpile of White runs out. Here are the casualty projections. As you can see, an attack would result in devastating casualties for both sides.
SISKO: You're suggesting we stall?
BASHIR: It'll buy us time to rebuild our defences and bring the Romulans into the alliance.
SISKO: The Romulans?
BASHIR: According to our analyses, there it is, they'll vote to abandon their non-aggression pact with the Dominion at next year's plenary session. By which time, internal pressures between the Cardassians and the Dominion will have erupted, and after three years six months and twenty seven days, we predict that
SISKO: Hang on a minute, Doctor. How'd you come up with all this? Two days ago you said these people were impossible to deal with, now they're turning out projections that it would take Starfleet Intelligence months to come up with.
BASHIR: We're mutants. I know, we're not exactly qualified for this kind of work and it could be said that it is beyond the limits of what people like us should be allowed to do. But I think if you allow me to walk you through our analyses, you'll be impressed.
SISKO: All right, Doctor. Go ahead.
BASHIR: Thank you, sir. The way our statistical analysis works, the farther into the future you go, the more accurate the projection. It's based on a kind of non-linear dynamics, whereby small fluctuations tend to factor out over time. The net result is
SISKO: Just a minute, Doctor. Why don't we go back to the beginning and take me through this step by step, nice and easy.
BASHIR: Gladly, sir.

[Cargo bay]

(It's a champagne celebration for the would-be psychohistorians.)
BASHIR: Captain Sisko said he would take our analyses to Starfleet Command right away.
JACK: Imagine that, Starfleet Command.
LAUREN: All those admirals.
PATRICK: It's a party!
(Patrick hands out party hats.)
BASHIR: It is now.
LAUREN: We need music.
BASHIR: Computer, music. Make it grand.
LAUREN: A waltz.
(The Blue Danube starts up, and Patrick dances with an imaginary partner.)
LAUREN: Care to dance?
(Lauren actually gets up off her couch and dances with Bashir. Jack goes over to Sarina, who walks away.)
LAUREN: Coward.
BASHIR: He tried.
LAUREN: I meant her.
(Jack cuts in with Lauren then the doorbell rings.)
BASHIR: Come in. Chief, what a pleasant surprise.
O'BRIEN: I, er, I need to replace that power coupling.
BASHIR: Don't mind us.
O'BRIEN: Hi.
(Patrick tries to put a party hat on O'Brien.)
O'BRIEN: No, thanks.
PATRICK: It's a party.
O'BRIEN: No. I need to get to work.
(Patrick cries.)
O'BRIEN: I didn't mean to. It's just that I need to get this coupling replaced.
(Lauren ends up back on her couch.)
BASHIR: What did you do, Chief?
O'BRIEN: Nothing.
BASHIR: What's the matter, Patrick?
PATRICK: He doesn't like me.
O'BRIEN: Sure I do. See?
(O'Brien puts the hat on.)
LAUREN: The Chief doesn't like any of us, do you Chief?
O'BRIEN: Julian, I
JACK: He's just jealous you're spending so much time with us.
LAUREN: His wife's away. He misses his friend.
O'BRIEN: I do not.
LAUREN: It's all right, Julian, go play with your friend. We'll be fine.
BASHIR: You want me to play with you, do you, Chief?
O'BRIEN: No!
LAUREN: Yes, you do.
BASHIR: Come on. Let's go to Quark's.
(Patrick picks up O'Brien's tool box.)
O'BRIEN: I'm going to need those.
PATRICK: No, you don't. There's nothing wrong with that power coupling.
O'BRIEN: Well, it's going to have to be replaced sometime.
BASHIR: Ready?
O'BRIEN: Ready, yeah.

[Quark's]

(A darts match)
O'BRIEN: I'm sorry. The last thing I wanted to do was upset them.
BASHIR: It's all right. The only reason Patrick gets so emotional is because he likes you.
O'BRIEN: He does?
BASHIR: Yeah, they all do.
O'BRIEN: What, because I got rid of that noise?
BASHIR: No, no, it's not just that. They fell comfortable be around you. What was the word Jack used? Uncomplicated.
O'BRIEN: Uncomplicated.
BASHIR: Oh, yes, they're amazingly insightful. They have ways of seeing things other people don't.
O'BRIEN: And saying things other people don't.
BASHIR: They are pretty candid, aren't they.
O'BRIEN: They sure are.
BASHIR: Funny thing is, I'm actually beginning to enjoy their company.
(Bashir steps up to the ockey for his throw.)
O'BRIEN: Hey, what are you doing? Get back.
BASHIR: You know, I was thinking Starfleet Command might do all right to take them on as a team of advisors.
O'BRIEN: Oh, I don't know. I can't imagine them in a room with a bunch of admirals, unless they're going to teach them how to dance.
BASHIR: We were celebrating.
O'BRIEN: Yeah, whatever.
BASHIR: They really are quite brilliant, though. I mean, once we actually started working, it was incredible. We were all on the same wavelength, talking in shorthand, finishing each other's sentences. I've never had that with anyone else.
O'BRIEN: After being with them, I can see how the rest of us must seem a little uncomplicated.
BASHIR: I wouldn't say that, exactly. More like slow.
O'BRIEN: Ha, ha. Must very be frustrating for you.
BASHIR: I don't mind. Makes me feel superior.
O'BRIEN: Glad to be of service.
BASHIR: I appreciate it. It's not always easy walking amongst the common people.
O'BRIEN: Yes, it's probably best to keep your expectations low.
(O'Brien throws the winning dart.)
O'BRIEN: That way we can surprise you now and then. Another game?
BASHIR: Sure. But do I have to stand so far back?
O'BRIEN: I make one lucky throw and you're ready to come down to my level?
BASHIR: I like to win, just like the next man.
O'BRIEN: Get back there. Come on.

[Cargo bay]

BASHIR: I've got good news. Starfleet Command was so impressed with our analysis, they've agreed to let us have access to classified information regarding Starfleet's battle readiness. Is something wrong?
JACK: We have new long term projections. You'd better take a look.
LAUREN: You're not going to like it
(Later)
JACK: Well?
BASHIR: Everything checks out.
LAUREN: I was hoping you were going to find a flaw.
BASHIR: No.
JACK: So then you agree with our conclusion?
BASHIR: It's inescapable. There's no way the Federation is going to be able beat the Dominion. We have no choice. We're going to have to surrender.

[Captain's office]

SISKO: Surrender to the Dominion. Not on my watch.
BASHIR: Sir, I understand how you feel. I don't like it any more than you do, but it's the best option. We've run dozens of different scenarios. Even if something unlikely were to happen tilting the scales in our favour, such as an anti-Dominion coup on Cardassia, we'll still lose this war.
SISKO: But that doesn't mean we should just give up and roll over.
BASHIR: If we fight, there will be over nine hundred billion casualties. If we surrender, no one dies. Either way we're in for five generations of Dominion rule. Eventually a rebellion will form, centring on Earth. It'll spread, and within another generation, they'll succeed in conquering the Dominion. The Alpha Quadrant will unite and a new, stronger Federation will rule for thousands of years. Since we can't win this war, why don't we save as many lives as we can? I know it's difficult to accept.
SISKO: I don't accept it. Your entire argument is based on a series of statistical probabilities and assumptions.
BASHIR: They're not just assumptions. If you want me to take you through the equations, I will.
SISKO: Even if I knew with a hundred percent certainty what was going to happen, I wouldn't ask an entire generation of people to voluntarily give up their freedom.
BASHIR: Not even to save over nine hundred billion lives?
SISKO: Surrender is not an option. Now I'm happy to hear your group's advice on how to win this war, but I don't need your advice on how to lose it.
BASHIR: We can't win this war.
SISKO: I don't care if the odds are against us. If we're going to lose, then we're going to go down fighting so that when our descendents some day rise up against the Dominion someday, they'll know what they're made of.
BASHIR: With all due respect, sir, aren't you letting your pride get in your way?
SISKO: All right, Doctor. You've made your recommendation. I'll pass it on to Starfleet Command.
BASHIR: Without add your voice to it, they'll dismiss it out of hand.
SISKO: I'm counting on it.
BASHIR: So we go down fighting. How terribly courageous of us.

[Quark's]

(Bashir shows O'Brien the projections at the bar.)
BASHIR: What do you think?
O'BRIEN: It's pretty grim.
BASHIR: It's not just grim, it's hopeless. We can't beat them, Miles.
O'BRIEN: No, it doesn't look like it, does it?
BASHIR: We have to avoid a long, drawn out war.
O'BRIEN: You mean surrender?
BASHIR: I know, it's an ugly word, but facts are facts.
O'BRIEN: I don't know, Julian.
BASHIR: Don't tell me you agree with the Captain.
O'BRIEN: I suppose I do.
BASHIR: Is there some part of the analysis you didn't understand, because if there is I'd be happy to explain.
O'BRIEN: I understood it perfectly. Believe it or not.
BASHIR: That's not what I meant. All I'm saying is that you have to look at the bigger picture.
O'BRIEN: I'm trying. Maybe I'm too uncomplicated to see it.
BASHIR: I didn't say that.
O'BRIEN: You don't have to. The way you're acting, you'd think nobody with half a brain could possibly disagree with you.
BASHIR: Frankly, I don't see how they can.
O'BRIEN: I can see two possible explanations for it. Either I'm more feebleminded than you ever realised, or you're not as smart as you think you are.
(O'Brien leaves Bashir with his drink. Later, at the dabo table.)
VOICES: Dabo!
QUARK: Looks like your lucky day.
BASHIR: Please. You and I both know these games of chance are no such thing. The odds are in the house's favour.
QUARK: Shh. Don't say that. People are trying to have fun.
BASHIR: Sooner or later, no matter how perfectly I play, no matter how well I hedge my bets, I'm going to lose.
QUARK: Why are you trying to spoil everyone's good time? Look around, these people are enjoying themselves. Half of them know the odds are against them, but they don't care. They're here because they want to believe they can win. Is that so bad?
BASHIR: They're fools.
QUARK: Why don't you just take your winnings and call it a day?
BASHIR: Because I'm trying to prove a point. There is no way to win.
QUARK: Stop saying that.
(And he loses.)
BASHIR: There, you see? We're all as good as dead.
QUARK: Doctor, take it easy. It's just a game.
BASHIR: You're right. It's not as if nine hundred billion lives were at stake.

[Cargo bay]

BASHIR: I just got word. Starfleet rejected our recommendations.
JACK: I knew it.
LAUREN: It's kind of a relief, in a way. I mean, who wants to wave a white flag?
JACK: They're the cowards! They don't have the courage to see the truth.
BASHIR: You may be right, but there's nothing we can do.
JACK: No, no, no. We can't just take this lying down. The stakes are too high. We've got to take matters into our own hands.
PATRICK: How, Jack? What can we do?
BASHIR: We can't force Starfleet to surrender.
JACK: If we can't head off the war, then there might be a way to make it a lot less bloody.
LAUREN: How?
JACK: Look at this. Starfleet battle plans, fleet deployments. Do you know what the Dominion could do with this information?
LAUREN: They could take the Alpha Quadrant in a matter of weeks.
JACK: With a lot fewer Federation casualties than in a drawn out war.
LAUREN: There wouldn't be more than two billion casualties.
JACK: That's a lot better than nine hundred billion.
BASHIR: Wait a minute! It's one thing for us to try and avert a war, but it's quite another for us to take it on ourselves to trigger an invasion that's going to get a lot of people killed. It's not our place to decide who lives and who dies. We're not gods.
JACK: Maybe not, but we're the next best thing.
BASHIR: Can you hear yourself? That's precisely the kind of thinking that makes people afraid of us.
JACK: I don't care. I'm willing to make this decision.
BASHIR: It's not ours to make. We presented our case to Starfleet Command. They rejected it. Case closed.
JACK: Not closed! We're going through with this.
BASHIR: I'm not going to be a party to treason.
JACK: Call it what you want, but I am willing to do it if it means saving billions of lives. So are you with us?
BASHIR: No. Haven't you been listening?
JACK: Fine.
(Jack knocks out Bashir. He lands in Lauren's lap and she caresses his body.)
LAUREN: So how do we contact the Dominion?

[Guest quarters]

WEYOUN: Still at it, I see.
DAMAR: I've been looking over Sisko's latest counter-proposal. We don't seem to be getting anywhere with him.
WEYOUN: Not very encouraging, is it?
DAMAR: I don't know why you had me call for peace talks in the first place.
WEYOUN: My, my, how quickly you've taken to your new role. And to think only a short time ago you were nothing more than Gul Dukat's adjutant.
DAMAR: I appreciate the faith you've shown in me.
WEYOUN: Then show some faith in me. Don't be like your predecessor, second guessing my every move. It should be clear to you by now that no one is irreplaceable. Now, I just received a very interesting message from an unidentified party claiming to have some information that could be very beneficial to us.
DAMAR: What sort of information?
WEYOUN: I don't know but we're going to find out.

[Cargo bay]

(Bashir wakes up tied to a chair.)
BASHIR: Computer. Computer, respond.
(He notices Sarina.)
BASHIR: Sarina, where is everyone? Did they arrange a meeting with the Dominion? Listen, we have to stop them before it's too late. Untie me. Please, Sarina. You don't want the deaths of so many people on your hands. It's Jack, isn't it? Are you worried what he'll think? I've seen the way you look at him when you think no one's watching. I know how much you care, but if you don't let me stop them, you know what's going to happen? They're going to be arrested and charged with treason and you're never going to see any of them again. You're never going to see Jack again.

[Corridor]

(Our trio meet a passer-by.)
PATRICK: I'm Patrick.
JACK: Patrick! Come on.
(They walk round a corner and meet security and ...)
BASHIR: Hello, everyone.
PATRICK: He's not supposed to be here.
JACK: No, no, no he's not. I don't understand.
BASHIR: Well, why don't we all go back to your quarters and I will explain it to you.
JACK: No, we've got to do this. Lives are at stake.
LAUREN: Don't interfere, Julian.
JACK: You have no right.
BASHIR: You're in enough trouble already, Jack. Don't make it any worse. Now we can do this the easy way or the hard way. It's up to you.

[Storage bay]

DAMAR: Where are they?
WEYOUN: They'll be here.
DAMAR: This is ridiculous. Sneaking into a storage bay for a secret meeting. I'm not some agent of the Obsidian Order, I'm the leader of the Cardassian Empire.
WEYOUN: Don't let it go to your head. You serve only at the Dominion's pleasure. Besides, I think it's exciting.
(Door opens.)
WEYOUN: They're here. Odo?
ODO: Yes, I know. I honour you with my presence.
WEYOUN: We seem to have gotten ourselves lost.
ODO: They're not coming.
DAMAR: Who's not coming?
ODO: I had a feeling you were going to say that. Shall I escort you to your quarters?

[Cargo bay]

BASHIR: Captain Sisko has decided not to press charges. You won't be going to prison.
PATRICK: What are they going to do to us?
BASHIR: Nothing bad. You'll be going back to the Institute together.
JACK: It doesn't matter what happens to us. Don't you realise what you've done?
BASHIR: I kept you from committing treason.
LAUREN: Are we supposed to thank you? Nine hundred billion people are going to die.
BASHIR: We don't know that.
JACK: Didn't you sit here and go through the projections with us? Didn't you?
PATRICK: He was here, Jack. I remember.
BASHIR: Maybe our projections were wrong.
JACK: How can you say that? We factored in every contingency, every variable. The equations don't lie. You. You ruined everything.
BASHIR: What do you make of that, Jack? Why didn't you anticipate that? Why didn't you factor her into your equation? Because you thought you knew everything, but you didn't even know what was going to happen in this room. One person derailed your plans. One person changed the course of history. Now, I don't know about you, but that makes me think that maybe, just maybe, things may not turn out the way we thought.

[Quark's]

(Bashir is sitting in a quiet corner.)
O'BRIEN: I heard what happened. It was a pretty close call.
BASHIR: Yeah. Luckily I managed to intercept them in time.
O'BRIEN: No, that's not what I meant. I was talking about when you had to decide whether or not to meet with the Dominion. Can't have been easy for you. I know you wanted to try to save as many lives as possible. It's probably what makes you such a good doctor.
BASHIR: Fortunately this doctor is also a Starfleet Officer. We thought we were so smart. We thought we could predict the future. It's my fault, not theirs. I should never have let things go so far. If I hadn't been so bent on trying to prove to the world that they had something to contribute.
O'BRIEN: They did contribute. It seems to me we've become far too complacent about the Dominion. We may have driven them back into Cardassian space, but we've haven't beaten them yet.
BASHIR: We can only hope.
O'BRIEN: Well, the odds are stacked against us. All we can do is give it our best shot.
(Later, Bashir is back at the dabo wheel.)
QUARK: You're not going to cause any more trouble, are you?
BASHIR: Not this time. I'll double down.
QUARK: Risky.
BASHIR: Maybe there's a better bet, but sometimes when the odds are so stacked against you, you've just got to take a chance.
QUARK: I admire your courage.
CROWD: Dabo!
QUARK: Well, what do you know. We have a winner.
O'BRIEN [OC]: O'Brien to Bashir.
BASHIR: Go ahead.
O'BRIEN [OC]: You wanted to know when a certain transport was leaving.
BASHIR: Oh, thanks.
O'BRIEN [OC]: There is one problem, though. We've got some passengers that are refusing to board unless you come see them.

[Cargo bay]

BASHIR: I didn't think you'd want to see me again.
LAUREN: Believe me, I wouldn't mind if our predictions turned out to be wrong. Jack's still furious, but I didn't want to leave without saying goodbye.
(She kisses Bashir.)
PATRICK: Will you come visit us?
BASHIR: What? Oh, yes, I'd like that. (to Sarina) You did the right thing, you know. One of these day he'll understand that. So, you ready to go?
JACK: Not so fast. There's one thing I need to know, Doctor. If we can come up with a way to beat the Dominion, will you listen?
BASHIR: I can't think of anything I'd like better.
JACK: Good, good, good. Let's go then. Let's go.
BASHIR: Bashir to O'Brien. Four to beam out.

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